Hydro-Québec plan forecasts data-centre winter-peak needs rising from 353 MW to 1,977 MW

Hydro-Québec forecasts that data centres in Québec will need 1,977 MW at the winter peak in 2040–41, up from 353 MW in 2025–26, in its 2027–2041 electricity supply plan, dated 30 October 2026 and filed with the Régie de l'énergie, the province's energy regulator, under file R-4359-2026. The utility published an English overview of the plan in November.

The plan counts that 1,624 MW rise within an 11,556 MW increase in the utility's regular winter-peak needs, from 40,532 MW in 2025–26 to 52,088 MW in 2040–41, and names electric vehicles as the largest source of growth: their peak needs climb by 3,976 MW, from 282 MW to 4,258 MW. Emerging sectors add 2,688 MW, mostly from data centres, with the battery industry adding 704 MW and greenhouses 360 MW. Hydro-Québec says the split of peak needs by use is an estimate.

In energy terms, the plan projects data-centre sales rising from 1.9 TWh in 2026 to 12.6 TWh in 2041, a 10.7 TWh gain that Hydro-Québec says makes up most of the growth in emerging sectors counted in the commercial sector. It bases the forecast on expected growth in demand for computing power across North America, from artificial intelligence and from established digital uses such as cloud services, data storage and processing, telecommunications, financial services and digital content. The plan assumes Québec serves about 0.36% of the North American market in 2025, 0.82% in 2030 and 0.77% in 2041, below 1% throughout, an assumption that weighs proximity to digital markets in the northeastern United States, a climate that helps cooling, and known projects. Hydro-Québec says the near and medium term mainly reflect known projects, while the longer term assumes Québec holds a share of the North American market above its historical level.

The plan says any new industrial or emerging-sector project that needs a supply of 5 MW or more must be authorised by the Québec government.

Across all uses, Hydro-Québec's overview projects Québec's electricity demand rising by about 60 TWh by 2041, to 240 TWh, and peak needs rising by about 12,000 MW, to 52,000 MW, plus a planning reserve. It says new supply sources must start closing the gap between supply and demand in 2029, and sets targets to add about 24,000 MW of capacity by 2041. The overview says the forecast already includes the expected effect of energy efficiency and solar self-generation, and that needs would be higher without them.